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Chapter 2
Themes
and Colors
Key
LitCharts assigns a color and icon to each theme in How Democracies Die, which you can use to track the themes throughout the work.
American Tyranny
Authoritarianism vs. Democratic Norms
Extremism and Gatekeeping
Polarization and Inclusive Democracy
Global and Historical Patterns
Summary
Analysis
Donald Trump announced his candidacy in June 2015, but most politicians and media commentators didn’t take him seriously at first. But the changes in the primary system made it possible for outsiders without any experience to succeed—in fact, more and more outsiders have run since 1972. Although they didn’t win the nomination, figures like Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, and Steve Forbes showed that it’s possible for candidates to skip past the invisible primary if they’re rich or famous enough.
In the last chapter, the authors established that Trump’s far-right, anti-democratic political style isn’t unique in American history. Instead, he’s unique because he ran for office in an era when political norms were fraying and the nomination system was ripe for authoritarian takeover. Specifically, party gatekeeping processes weakened enough that Trump’s fame and wealth effectively substituted for political support from the establishment.
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Still, in 2015, Trump initially appeared to face the same long odds as these earlier celebrity outsider candidates. Even after he started leading in the polls, media commentators assumed that party gatekeepers would keep him out of power. But gatekeepers were weaker than ever. After the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision, new money was flooding into politics, giving outsider candidates a better way to fundraise. And as cable news and social media took over from traditional media outlets, especially among Republicans, it got easier for outsiders to win name recognition and support across the country.
Coupled with longer-term changes in the party nomination process, short-term changes in political media and campaign contribution laws also made it easier for Trump to skip the “invisible primary” and win the nomination without any formal support from the establishment. Like the new nomination process, these changes in media and campaign laws allowed nontraditional actors to enter politics. But unlike the new nomination process, these changes didn’t actually make American politics more democratic. Instead, they allowed powerful actors from outside the party establishments to further influence politics in their own favor.
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Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that Republican Party gatekeepers failed to do their job during the invisible primary, the state primaries, and the election.
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First, Trump struggled in the invisible primary: no major Republicans supported him until very late in the race, after he won the second and third primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Even by the end of the primaries, he had a fraction as many endorsements as his major competitors. Ultimately, in 2016, the invisible primary simply didn’t matter: Trump didn’t need the Republican gatekeepers. He was a celebrity, major conservative media figures supported him, and his endless controversies attracted constant news coverage.
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After the Super Tuesday primaries, prominent Republican politicians and magazines started turning against Trump, but they couldn’t do much to stop him. Leaders tried to get delegates to change their vote, but they found little success. In the primary-based convention system, there was no way for Trump to lose. Party leaders no longer had control over the process.
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Finally, during the general election, the Republican establishment and media cautiously suggested that Trump wouldn’t bring his extremism and incivility into office. But actually, it’s often possible to identify anti-democratic politicians before they get power—and Trump fits all the four warning signs of autocracy that Levitsky and Ziblatt laid out in the first chapter.
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First, Trump isn’t committed to the rules of democracy. He refused to promise to accept the 2016 election results, and he accused Hillary Clinton supporters of widespread voter fraud without any evidence. No president has questioned American democracy like this since the 1860s, and Trump’s rhetoric led the majority of Republicans to doubt whether the election was fair.
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Second, Trump denies his opponents’ legitimacy: he falsely claimed that Barack Obama was not born in the U.S. and called for imprisoning Hillary Clinton.
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Third, Trump is the first presidential candidate in more than a century to promote violence. At his rallies, he frequently threatened protesters and encouraged his supporters to assault them.
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Fourth, Trump supports punishing his opponents and critics. He proposed prosecuting Hillary Clinton for unspecified crimes and threatened to change libel laws and sue the media.
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In the general election, Republicans should have done everything possible to keep Trump out of power and preserve democracy—including supporting Hillary Clinton. Endorsing opponents to save democracy isn’t unprecedented: it happened in Austria in 2016 and France in 2017. And some Republican politicians did endorse Clinton—but not any prominent national figures. Of the 78 who did, 77 were retired, and one was about to retire.
If prominent Republicans had endorsed Clinton, they very well might have swung the election. Unfortunately, they chose to pretend that it was an ordinary election. Because the U.S. electorate was highly polarized and very conflicted about Obama, this ensured that it was going to be a toss-up. If they hadn’t normalized Trump’s candidacy, Republican leaders could have prevented him from winning.
